( 23/6/2008)
Abstract
Crime rate prediction models are intriguing, because there is no magic formula for human actions and reactions within the surrounding local and global conditions. Recently many models were studied and introduced depending on many factors which might affect such rates, and analysts are usually asked whether crime will increase or decrease, and by using past figures along with other factors an estimated figure could be presented, they are quit vital for policy makers and planners who could incorporate such numbers into crime prevention programs.
And since the magic formula doesn’t exist in this case, many assumptions are made of the factors that might affect crime rates, including: unemployment, deprivation, political instability, public awareness, police and government efforts to prevent crimes, other interesting models even include natural disasters and how they affect crime rates, as crime rates increase with the more damage they produce(Diana Ehlers, 1998).






